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Download the slides for Phil’s presentation by clicking on the image above.

If you have any questions or would like to be added to the Hydrocarbon Allocation Notification list, feel free to get in touch with Kirsty Armitage (kirsty.armitage@energysys.com) or by calling 08456 250 500.

The last Hydrocarbon Allocation Forum of 2014 was held in Aberdeen on the 10th of December.

Phil Stockton, Director Accord Energy Solutions, delivered the keynote presentation to the largest crowd we’ve had, exploring process simulation uncertainty.

The main purpose of process simulation models within hydrocarbon allocation systems is to provide information regarding how hydrocarbons behave in a process plant.

Allocation algorithms often include factors generated by these models. In calculating the uncertainty in the quantities allocated to each party in an allocation system, the uncertainty in the factors supplied from a simulation has to be accounted for. The uncertainty in the measured quantities is often known with a good degree of confidence but for example a shrinkage factor uncertainty is generally unknown and usually arbitrarily assumed to have a value of say ±10%.

This presentation demonstrates how to calculate process factor uncertainties more rigorously using Monte Carlo simulation. It also illustrates that the uncertainties of such factors can vary significantly and that they are highly dependent on the parameter in question, the process itself, operating conditions, etc. The paper considers the sources of uncertainty within the models and attempts to demystify their black box reputation.

The presentation concludes by illustrating the variability in some recycle streams and the problems associated with usefulness of measurements of these types of streams in allocation systems.

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